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PVC Jedi fights back, improvement in panic mood may stop falling and shock

Date:2021-04-06 Views:71

  1. The macroeconomic environment is in a small period, and the indicators in the first quarter have risen steadily.

  According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, GDP in the first quarter increased by 6.9% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 6.8% and the expected 6.8%. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in March was 7.6% year-on-year, and is expected to be 6.2%, compared with 6.3% in the previous two months. The cumulative urban fixed asset investment in March was 9.2% year-on-year, expected 8.8%, and previous value 8.9%. The total retail sales of consumer goods in March was 10.9% year-on-year, which is expected to be 9.7%, and the previous value was 10.9%. The actual year-on-year GDP growth rate of 6.9% in the first quarter was better than expected, setting a new high for one and a half years; the nominal year-on-year growth rate of 11.8%, setting a new high in the past five years. In March, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size improved markedly from the same period last month, and the economy showed a significant improvement trend. The industrial added value in March increased by 7.6% year-on-year, significantly better than market expectations of 6.2% and the previous value of 6.3%, a significant increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous two months; the month-on-month growth rate of 0.83% hit a two-and-a-half-year high. The industrial economy is strong, and the trend for improvement is obvious.

  II. Supply and demand analysis

  1. Accelerated price decline touches costs, but inventory remains high??The domestic PVC spot market has maintained a weak balance since March. It experienced a round of panic selling from the weekend to the beginning of this week, and the market balance was broken. However, the futures prices rebounded retaliately and the spot sentiment improved significantly.

  Quotation of type 5 ordinary calcium carbide: the mainstream self-pickup price in East China market is 5500-5580 yuan/ton; the South China area is 5530-5550 yuan/ton self-pickup, some are slightly higher and slightly lower; Shandong mainstream 5450-5600 yuan/ton delivery , 5430-5540 yuan/ton delivered to the mainstream of Hebei market. The PVC market quotation in East China is weak and stable. The reference quotation for PVC of type 5 ordinary calcium carbide is 5500-5580 yuan/ton. There are even higher quotations but it is difficult to make a deal. The actual orders are mostly negotiated. Some low-priced goods have fallen below the quoted quotation. 5500 yuan/ton. The PVC market in Hebei is flat, and the downstream demand is not good. On-demand procurement is the focus, and the transaction price is constantly loosening. Type 5 materials will be delivered at 5000-5100 yuan/ton without tax, 5430-5540 yuan/ton with tax, and some lower prices are also heard.

  At present, most of the chlor-alkali enterprises in the central and eastern regions represented by Shandong region have suffered overall losses, so the possibility of later maintenance or production reduction will increase, but the overall profitability of enterprises in Inner Mongolia is still very impressive. From the perspective of the cost line alone, there is a certain cost support for PVC falling to the current price, but for the relatively high proportion of Northwest enterprises, the current PVC price will not pose significant pressure on the company.

  2, demand is relatively stable and there is still room for performanceIn the medium and long term, with the shift in real estate policies, the slowdown in real estate transaction growth will eventually lead to the overall weakening of long-term demand for building materials; however, we need to note that the probability of a cliff-like decline in real estate transactions in a short period of time is still relatively high. The current data has not been verified; and there is a certain time difference between the transaction link and the downstream building material demand and price performance. Through our observations, the time difference is generally 3-6 months or even longer. Therefore, at least from the current cycle, there is still a certain foundation for the back-end demand of the building, especially the lag effect of the demand for decoration in the later stage, which will make this part of the demand show a slow release characteristic, that is, short-term demand will not appear a cliff-like decrease . And even if the trend of demand decreases, according to the lag of the time cycle, the demand for building materials during this year's peak season cycle will not be too bad. On the contrary, next year will face a greater downside risk.

  Three, technical

  September contract continued the downward trend of Masukura since mid-March. The moving average system was short in the market. In April, the shifting of positions accelerated, and the price of futures began to decline rapidly. Market sentiment influenced each other and strengthened itself. From the perspective of long-term trends, PVC rose last year for a long time, and there is a need for correction and shock consolidation. In the medium and long term, the futures price showed a wide range of fluctuations, which accelerated its downward trend after falling below the important psychological threshold of 6000. Since mid-March, there has been little rebound in futures prices. Under the background of technical oversold, the futures prices rebounded sharply at the 5500 mark. The short side urgently fulfilled the demand and pushed up the futures prices.

  Four, viewpoint

  To sum up, the macro and fundamentals have not undergone major substantial changes, and there are some bullish factors in the market to support the price rebound. This week, we will focus on the support near 5500. If the futures price retreats, we can do more to follow up. There is a possibility of pulling back the 6000 mark in the short and medium term. Even if the rebound is smaller than expected, the probability of futures prices continuing to fall sharply in the short term is low.